Saturday, October 27, 2012

Apple Sell Thesis (1/2 Position)

Before the iPhone 5 announcement, we cut our AAPL position in half (approximately $670) to take profits and eliminate the risk of underperformance after the iPhone release. This is precisely what happened and on October 12th (price $630), we reevaluated the situation and decided to double down on the position ahead of the iPad mini announcement and Q4F2012 earnings. Unfortunately, a number of factors caused the stock price to decline 4% (our stop loss for this particular trade), including iPad mini margin concerns and general fears about the upcoming earnings announcement. Management seemed to drive a point home throughout the conference call: results could be rocky in the short term, but the company is well positioned to take advantage in the long term as costs decline and production inefficiencies abate (see earnings release). Therefore, at this point we are withdrawing from the ST trade at the stop-loss point that was created at the inception of the trade ($605). Our LT AAPL thesis remains in tact, leaving us with a normal weighting position going forward.  

-Joe Esposito 

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