Sunday, July 31, 2011

RCL 2Q Review

Royal Caribbean reported 2Q results Wednesday after the close. EPS for the quarter was $0.43, in-line with street expectations of $0.42 & below our estimates of $0.54. Earnings this quarter were overshadowed by two salient points: an internal accounting error regarding interest expense & an underperformance in the Eastern Mediterranean segment as a direct result of the geopolitical events in Libya & Greece. As a result, management decreased full-year guidance by $0.10 (or $0.20 including the accounting change) to $2.85-$2.95 from $3.05-$3.15.

Excluding the one-time revision related to interest expense, EPS for the quarter was $0.47 & above street expectations & management guidance of $0.40-$0.45. Key metrics, including cash flows, operating income, net yields & net cruise costs were not impacted by the accounting error. While management cited that the error was both internal & embarrassing, we do not believe that the issue is material. The internal accounting staff was incorrectly marking the amortization of undisclosed assets & the law firm Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman is currently investigating the issue.

Growth in net yields for the quarter, reported to be +3.8%, were lower versus our modeled +7.0% due to the lagging East Mediterranean segment. Excluding Mediterranean sailings, yields were 9.8%, which we believe show’s strength in the company’s underlying business. Demand across all regions (excluding the Mediterranean) remains strong & management stated that their ability to leverage pricing power remains intact. The company decreased net yield guidance for full-year 2011 to 5% from the prior range of 5%-7%, citing continued uncertainty in the Middle East/Europe & the resulting deterioration in demand. We would like to note that itineraries in the troubled regions account for approximately 13% of RCL’s business.

The stock was hit hard after the release, falling over 13% on Thursday. While the accounting error may affect the short-term credibility of management, it was likely the downward revision to year-end guidance that caused the sell-off. The unfortunate events in the Middle East & Europe have turned what was expected to be an above-average year into a mediocre one. Management remains positive & our bullish thesis on both the cruise industry & RCL has not changed. In regards to cost-basis, we will continue to monitor where the stock is trading & evaluate any additional buying opportunities.


Saturday, July 30, 2011

Chesapeake Announces Q2FY2011 Earnings- 7/28/2011

Chesapeake Energy Corporation announced its 2011 second quarter financial and operational results. They reported 2011 Second Quarter profit of $510 million, or 68 cents per share, doubling its year-ago earnings of $255 million, or 37 cents per share. Excluding items, earnings arrived at 76 cents per share, while revenue surged 65% to $3.32 billion. The results surpassed expectations, with the consensus estimate calling for a profit of 72 cents per share on $2.77 billion in revenue. Output rose 9.3% during the quarter, said the natural gas giant. Net Income to Common Stockholders of $467 Million. The Company Adjusted Net Income Available to Common Stockholders of $528 Million, or $0.76 per Fully Diluted Common Share, Adjusted Ebitda of $1.4 Billion and Operating Cash Flow of $1.2 Billion. The company reported production of gas of 277 billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent (bcfe).

Thursday in its second-quarter earnings statement, Chesapeake announced that Utica wells were “liquids-rich,” indicating that oil and wet gas were being found, along with natural gas. The company also said it is seeking a joint venture partner as it begins drilling more wells in the Utica shale. Chesapeake already has drilled five wells in Carroll County and is working on a sixth. McClendon said the company has five drilling rigs operating in the Utica shale. He expects to have eight rigs by the end of this year and 40 rigs drilling by the end of 2014. McClendon said Chesapeake’s work in the Utica shale will be a “key driver in the future growth” of Ohio’s economy and hopefully this will lead to growth for the company as a whole. “It’s pretty much the most ideal place in America for a new (oil and natural gas) play to develop,” McClendon said.

During the first half of 2011, Chesapeake continued the industry’s most active drilling program drilling 759 gross operated wells (480 net wells with an average working interest of 63%) and participating in another 708 gross non-operated wells (104 net wells with an average working interest of 15%). The company’s drilling success rate was 98% for company-operated wells and 99% for non-operated wells. During the first half of 2011, Chesapeake’s drilling and completion costs of $3.427 billion included the benefit of approximately $1.129 billion of drilling and completion carries from its joint venture partners.

The Company Increased its Full-Year 2011 and 2012 Production and Capital Expenditure Outlook and it largely offsets oilfield service inflation through its wholly owned oilfield service businesses and its 30% Stake in frac Tech. Chesapeake Energy is currently trading at $34.35.


Thursday, July 28, 2011

BAX- Kills 2Q earnings, raises FY 2011 guidance

Baxter has reported strong earnings for Q2 along with guidance for Q3. They reported a net income for the second quarter ending June 30, 2011 at $615 million, or $1.07 per diluted share, which beat our estimate of $543 million, or $0.94 per share. Net sales for the second quarter of 2011 were $3.54 billion, compared to $3.19 billion for the same quarter of 2010.

For the third quarter of 2011, the company expects sales growth, excluding the impact of foreign currency, of 3 to 4 percent (or 6 to 7 percent including the benefit of foreign currency) and earnings per diluted share of $1.07 to $1.09, before any special items. For full-year 2011, Baxter now expects earnings, before special items, of $4.27 to $4.32 per diluted share versus previous guidance of $4.20 to $4.28 per diluted In addition, the company expects to generate cash flows from operations of approximately $2.8 billion.

Baxter also announced today that it has established Baxter Ventures to invest up to $200 million in equity in promising early-stage companies developing therapies that complement Baxter’s existing portfolio.

“Baxter’s mission is to apply innovative science to develop therapies and medical technologies that save and sustain patients’ lives,” said Robert L. Parkinson, Jr., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Baxter. “As the company’s internal capabilities have advanced our late-stage pipeline, we have the capacity to further accelerate the early-stage development of essential therapies.”

Baxter was trading at 62.15 earlier this week and nearly hit it’s price target of $62.66 before falling over 3% as the market continued to slip today and closed at $58.70.

EW- Reports mediocre earning, market reacts

EW reported a net income for the quarter ended June 30, 2011 of $58.1 million, or $0.48 per diluted share, compared to net income of $57.5 million, or $0.48 per diluted share, for the same period in 2010. Excluding special items from both periods, detailed in the reconciliation table below, second quarter diluted earnings per share were $0.49, an increase over the prior year of 6.5 percent but on the lower side of most estimates. Second quarter net sales increased 18.1 percent to $431.2 million compared to the same period last year. Underlying sales growth was 11.0 percent.

"Growth outside the U.S. was particularly strong this quarter, including another impressive quarter for trans catheter heart valves," said Michael A. Mussallem, chairman and CEO. "Our core heart valve and critical care product lines continued to perform well globally. And, we were pleased with the FDA advisory panel's recommendation for approval yesterday, which reinforces our confidence in a 2011 U.S. launch for the Edwards SAPIEN trans catheter heart valve."

For the second quarter, the company reported Heart Valve Therapy sales of $263.1 million, representing 22.5 percent growth over last year. Underlying sales grew 14.8 percent. Trans catheter heart valve sales were $85.3 million, a 60.3 percent increase over 2010, or 45.7 percent on an underlying basis. These results were driven by strong procedure growth and continued adoption of the new 29mm Edwards SAPIEN XT valve in Europe.

Edwards Lifesciences Corporation announced that for third quarter 2011, it expects diluted earnings per share, excluding special items, in the range of $0.37 to $0.39. The Company reaffirmed fiscal 2011 guidance and expects for diluted earnings per share, excluding special items, of $2.01 to $2.07.

EW dropped rapidly from $81 a share and fell below the current price target of 75.90. It is closed today at $72.46.

Life Technologies (LIFE) 2Q 2011

Life Technologies (LIFE) shares fell 5.33% today after releasing second quarter results. The company reported increased revenues from $906 million to $945 million, a growth rate of 4%. Shrinking margins caused net income and EPS to fall, however, and under-perform analyst expectations. Net income fell from $175 million to $163 million, while non-GAAP earnings per share fell from $0.91 to $0.89. Analysts expected EPS of $0.95 and top-line revenues of $961 million.

The main drivers of the company's under-performance were lower sales in research lab products, a growth slowdown China, and the recent Japanese earthquake. Throughout the year, academic and private medical research has seen a drop in government funding, which has hurt the sales of their life sciences kits, a significant portion of their revenues. The firm has also seen an expected slowdown in the Chinese markets, as it has switched commercial strategies. Lastly, the earthquake in Japan disrupted the launch of a new genetic sequencer, which hurt profit margins as the firm was forced to sell the less profitable sequencer upgrades.

Going forward, budget cuts in the academic and private research realms will continue to hurt the sales of the company's kit products. Management expects the budget cuts to persist for at least the rest of the year. However, the firm now expects to see higher growth rats in China, as they reap the benefits of the strategy turnaround. In addition, as the effects of the Japanese earthquake fade away, the company will be able to sell the more profitable generic sequencers versions, as opposed to the upgrades at lower margins.


Fiserv Q2 Earnings

Fiserv beat estimates, on adjusted EPS of 1.13 vs. consensus of 1.08, and guided FY11 EPS towards the top of range. Adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations for the first six months of 2011 were up 10 percent to $2.15 compared with $1.95 in 2010. GAAP earnings per share from continuing operations for the second quarter of 2011 was $0.67, which included a loss from early debt extinguishment of $0.26 per share, compared with $0.85 in 2010. GAAP earnings per share from continuing operations for the first six months of 2011 was $1.45, which included a loss from early debt extinguishment and severance expenses of $0.34 per share, compared with $1.65 in 2010.

Management was particularly bullish on Q4 2011 and FY 2012 because sales of existing products have been strong, and increasing regulatory clarity in the banking sector might lead to increased capital spending. CEO Jeff Yabuki was excited by the sales trends, "our highly valued and differentiated solutions led us to record the largest quarterly sales attainment in the company's history." He also commented on the regulatory environment, “The big regulatory news in the quarter was the fed's finalization of Durbin. While Durbin will negatively impact debit interchange revenue for larger institutions, albeit at a level better than originally signaled, the fed did confirm the creation of a 2-tier interchange system that will exempt debt issuers with less than $10 billion in assets from the interchange caps. We view this as positive for our business in the near and the mid-term.”

JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have raised their target price to $67, but remain neutral. Oppenheimer reiterated its outperform call with a target price of $72, which mirrors UASBIG’s target of $72.49. On the day, FISV was flat, while the overall market declined more than 2%. UASBIG’s cost basis is 62.13, or 1% above today’s market price of 61.45.

An updated target price will be posted within 7 days.


Wednesday, July 27, 2011

ECL 2Q-2011

Net Income for the Cleaning Products fell from $125.9 million from $129.3 million a year earlier. However, revenue rose 11.7% to $1.7 billion from the same quarter last year. ECL also beat the mean estimate of 63 cents per share, by reporting an adjusted 64 cents per share. Sales growth was led by US Cleaning & Sanitizing, Asia Pacific and Latin America, and a strong performance from acquisitions had offset the higher delivered product costs.

Ecolab chairmen, President and CEO attributed the company’s success to organic sales, recent acquisitions and pricing plans. The company plans on transforming Europe into a higher growth, more efficient and more profitable region. Despite, anticipated higher raw material costs, they remain on target to noticeable improvement in their operating margin in Europe.

Gross Margin shrank 1.3% to 49.3%, primarily due to increased costs which rose 14.8%. Revenue has risen in the last 4 consecutive quarters. Also, Net Income has dropped in the last two quarter, but has topped expectations with net income over the same two quarters.


BMC Software Reports Earnings

BMC reported 1st quarter results today, EPS was $.72 compared to the estimate of $.68. Operating income rose 6%. Net income in the three months through June 30 rose 3 percent to $95.7 million, or 53 cents per share, from $92.8 million, or 50 cents per share, a year earlier. Revenue was $502 million compared to expecatations of $506 million.

The miss in revenue was due to the lackluster growth of BMC's Enterprise Management Service which accounts for 2/3 of sales. However, BMC raised its EPS targets for next year by $.04. BMC looks to profit from businesses shifting towards cloud services and other IT-infustructures. BMC has high expectations for the coming year. The CEO, Bob Beauchamp, looks to leverage technology leadership and capitalize on growing customer demand for more flexible IT-infastructures.

Based on the slow start, BMC reduced its annual forecast for enterprise systems management bookings growth to the mid-teen percentages from the low 20s.


ITW Q2 Earnings Report

Illinois Tool Works released their earnings and slightly missed the street expectations. ITW reported net earnings of $0.99 versus the street average of $1.02. The company had to discontinue some operations which caused the earnings from continuing operations to fall to $0.96/share. In June the company has released the information about the discontinued operations, and the same time has lowered their earnings forecast to be between $0.95-$1.01 per share.

ITW also barely missed the revenue expectations. It reported second quarter revenues at $4.81 billion; missing the expectations by $0.07 billion. Even though the revenues grew by 17.5%(100 basis points less than expected) compared to 2Q2010, it did not help the sell off in ITW stock today. The stock fell $4.67 or 8.2% on Tuesday.

The company had a very successful first quarter, and the analysts expected the same demand in the second quarter. Managements notes that the reason for a lower revenue growth in the second quarter was the "modest slowing in industrial markets." The organic revenues were 120 basis points lower than expected due to lower demand in Europe and Japan, but ITW's CEO says that he believes the markets are "in a long-term recovery mode."

Finally ITW reviewed their forecast for adjusted full year earnings to be $3.80; excluding the $0.33 tax gain received in Q1. The street was expecting full year earnings to be $3.92. ITW is still a strong player in the industrial sector, and they will recover from today's price drop.


Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Ford Remains in Neutral -- 2Q11 Earnings

Ford reported earnings of $0.59 a share, which includes one time charges of $0.06 a share, reflecting net income of $2.4bn, a $201 million decrease from second quarter 2010. Along with the 7.7% drop in second quarter EPS, F reiterated earlier warnings that the second half of the year will be weaker than the first, sending shares of Ford down 1.75% to $12.94.

Revenues were up 13% to $35.5bn as strong transaction prices, especially in North America, boosted revenue by $1.1bn. However CFO Lewis Booth said prices will be under increased pressure and won’t be “at quite the same level as the first half”. Other Automakers are likely to spend more on incentives in the second half as they boost inventories that were depleted by the March tsunami in Japan. The weaker earnings, despite improved revenues, are a result of higher structural, commodity and vehicle launch costs.

The company’s commitment to return to investment grade “sooner rather than later” as Booth said was further solidified in the second quarter. Gross debt shrank by $2.6bn billion to $14bn and cash reserves sit at $22bn, $700 million more than last quarter. Resumption of dividend payments relies heavily on an investment-grade rating, and now after 8 consecutive quarters of operating profits and consistent balance sheet improvements, F is not far from achieving just that.

Looking forward F has maintained its overall U.S sales forecast of between 13 million to 13.5 million and in the 19 European markets F tracks, they expect full-year sales to be between 14.8 million and 15.3 million, compared with its previous forecast of between 14.5 million and 15.5 million. It’s going to be a rocky second half, but we remain bullish on F in the long-term. They have shown an ability to remain profitable while strengthening their balance sheet and investing in their future.


Sunday, July 24, 2011

MCD 2Q11 .. I'm Lovin' It

McDonalds Inc. reported 2Q earnings per share of $1.35, nearly 20% higher year-over-year and $0.07 greater then street expectation of $1.28. The earnings beat came on top of 16% revenue growth and the leveraging of fixed costs. Operating margin improved to 31.7% versus our forecast of 31.0% - showing that the company was able to offset rising inflationary costs through strategic pricing increases.

Top-line results were driving by larger than expected sales in the McCafe line-up, classic core offerings (Big Mac/McNuggets), and breakfast (Fruit & Maple Oatmeal). The strong comp numbers across every region suggest that the increase in pricing points is not affecting consumer demand. Consolidated same store sales were 4.5% for the quarter, led by the Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa segment.

The stock rose 2% on news of the beat and analysts across the street have begun to increase year-end estimates. CEO Jim Skinner said, "McDonald's ongoing momentum reflects our commitment to the customer. By providing relevant food and beverage choices in convenient, modern restaurants, we're giving customers more reasons to visit us more often.” Due to this momentum and unique global positioning, we remain bullish on shares of MCD. We are currently working to revise estimates and update price target in our model.


Friday, July 22, 2011

VZ Earnings

Verizon Wireless recorded second quarter profit of $1.61 Billion, $0.57 per share. Revenue rose 2.8% to $27.54 Billion, slightly above expectations. EPS was $.02 higher than expectations. Verizon added 1.3 million new wireless subscribers, 36% of which were smartphones. The target rate is 50% which analysts believe is unachievable. Verizon gained 2.3 million iPhone users last quarter compared to AT&T which added 3.6 Million customers. This is in part due to AT&T lowering the cost of its 3GS models.

Verizon also announced that they have appointed a new CEO, Lowell McAdam. McAdam is the former chief of Verizon Wireless, a business line which has become the biggest U.S. mobile phone carrier and the most profitable business unit for Verzion. McAdam hopes to bring an Entrepreneurial focus by expanding the Verizon FiOS fiber-optic TV and internet service division. Moving forward, AT&T and Verizon will be the titans in the industry. I expect Verizon's FiOS to take off and have a high penetration rate in households. Shares are down over 2% for the day.


Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Halliburton (HAL) Q2 Earnings

Halliburton reported earnings of $0.80 per diluted share, representing net income of $739 million for the second quarter of 2011. During the same period in 2010, HAL reported net income of $480 million ($0.53 per diluted share).

HAL reported record-breaking revenue, for the second quarter of 2011 of $5.9 billion, representing an increase from $5.3 billion in the first quarter of 2011 and $4.4 billion in the second quarter of 2010.

Management attributes their strong quarter to improved pricing and equipment utilization in United States land. Nearly all product lines have benefitted from the increased activity in the unconventional oil and liquids-rich basins. Demand for energy remains strong around the globe. Increased interest in the shale environment should also benefit HAL. United States rig activity grew by 6% during the quarter. Rig count is a leading indicator of demand for oil services.
International activity remains flat. Activity has picked up in Latin America, Asia and Russia. However, the shutdown in Lybia, project delays in Iraq and sluggish activity in the United Kingdom and Algeria has not helped HAL.

As Halliburton continues to grow and demand for their services rise I believe that their stock price will surpass our target of $56.00. We currently own 50 shares of HAL purchased at $48.48 a share. HAL recently reached a new 52-week high of $55.95. I expect the next two quarters and 2012 to be very positive for the company.

-Alex Perez

Ecolab (ECL) pays $5.4 billion on merger with Nalco; ECL drops 7.37%

Ecolab will pay approximately $5.4 billion, valuing Nalco stock at $38.80 per share. In response to this acquisition, full year EPS forecast was raised to $2.52 to $2.56. Nalco is the world’s largest sustainability service company, concentrated on industrial water, energy and air applications. Their services to customers include energy reduction, water and other natural resource consumption, air quality enhancement, minimizing environmental releases and improving productivity.

Douglas M. Baker, Ecolab’s Chairman, President and CEO, stated, “Nalco's water and oil and gas services end markets in particular represent excellent long term growth potential as the world deals with the quality, cost and availability of those key natural resources.”

Nalco shareholders will have the option of receiving either 0.7005 shares of ECL common stock or $38.80 per Nalco share in cash, without interest. Subject to proration, Nalco shareholders will be approximately 70% in ECL shares and 30 % in cash. The transaction is expected to be completed in the 4th quarter.

On the day: ECL’s dropped $4.08(-7.37%) in reaction to the merger.


QCOM 3rd Quarter Earnings

Qualcomm reported a 35% increase in earnings to $3.64 Billion due to strong demand for wireless devices. Net income was $1.04 Billion; EPS was 61 cents. Results were constrained by the weakness in Europe which is causing uncertainty in the market. The forecast for CDMA devices was lowered because of decreasing European demand. Despite this, Qualcomm is still a leader in the chip market and has a strong global reach. The financial targets for the next quarter have been raised. Revenue next year is projected to be about half a billion more than previous expectations. The expected range is $14.7 to $15 Billion.

Shares are down over 2% after hours due to the decrease in forecast for cell phone chip shipments. Investors are worried about an economic slowdown which would put a halt to consumer spending. However, I am still bullish for a couple of reasons. The issue with the debt ceiling will be resolved which will send investors rushing back to equities. Specific to Qualcomm, smart phones have been a hot item in emerging markets. In addition, the new iphone, which Qualcomm will make chips for, is expected to make an arrival this fall.


Friday, July 15, 2011

Hartford’s Q2 Guidance

The Hartford Financial Services Group pre-announced their Q2 results because they declared six special items, which collectively reduced projected EPS from a consensus of $.77 to $.03. Of these six, four do not impact UASBIG’s thesis. In descending order of after-tax significance, they are: P&C catastrophe losses of $290m, reserve increase for legacy asbestos liabilities of $189m, disposition of a bank acquired for TARP eligibility $74m, and a $52m tax benefit related to an IRS settlement from the years 1998-2001.

The two remaining items require a little more color before their impact on investors confidence can be fully assessed. First, it is important to understand which management regime started the failed policy administration software project that was discontinued and written off for $73m. Second, the negative DAC unlock, resulting in a $76 million impact to net income implies that either a mistake was made in a recent period, or that they have changed their assumptions about their life insurance or variable annuity products.

There were two positive developments. Hartford’s investment portfolio contained a net unrealized gain of approximately $800 million at the end of June, and Japan did not have a major impact.

The totals reported do allow UASBIG to make a quick backward calculation: a sum of the after tax items, assuming half the catastrophe losses and adding in the projected net income of $24m, yields $518m* after preferred dividends. or $1.03 in quarterly earnings. $1.03 would have been 8.4% above the highest Q2 consensus estimate of $.95. That number suggests that the positive pricing and renewal trends from the first quarter are being sustained. Margins and management’s guidance have the potential to drive a significant up or down move on august 3rd and 4th. UASBIG will be ready.

*This post has been corrected to include preferred dividends.


Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Alcoa 2Q11 Earnings Release

On July 11th, Alcoa reported 2Q11 Income from Continuing Operations of $0.32/share, excluding $.04/share in restructuring and debt tender offer costs. Analysts were expecting a consensus of $.33/share and we were modeling $.34/share. Although AA missed estimates, they still came in with strong Y/Y and sequential trends despite rising costs due to energy and raw materials, as well as a negative currency impact. Revenues of $6.6B represent a 27% Y/Y jump and an 11% jump from 1Q11. AA states the sequential increase in income was driven by higher revenues, higher alumina shipments, and price realization for both aluminum and alumina.

AA was especially pleased with their performance in the Alumina segment, which reported ATOI of $186M, 31% higher than 1Q11. This is mainly due to a 7% improvement in realized alumina price increases. AA is a world leader in the production and sale of alumina, which is becoming a more relevant commodity.

On Monday, AA was trading down 2.87% prior to the release of the earnings and continued to decline in after-hours trading. As seen in the past, Alcoa tends to be a short favorite around earnings time. In 15 of the last 29 quarters, AA has traded down after hours and continued to decline the following day 73% of the time. In this situation, AA followed suit and finished down 1.26% on Tuesday.

CEO Klaus Kleinfeld was pleased with the company’s results and despite sporadic economic recovery, he remains bullish on the outlook for Alcoa and the aluminum industry as a whole. In the earnings release, he reiterated his belief that global demand for aluminum will increase 12% by 2012 and will more than double by 2020. The feeling was mixed around analysts, with many decreasing their outlook for AA in the next two years. The general feeling being that the rising costs of input are going to be hard to overcome throughout the rest of 2011 and in 2012, despite growing demand.

-Jeremy Pellizzari

Thursday, July 7, 2011

Caterpillar Inc. Trading Above Price Target

On Thursday, July 7th, Caterpillar, Inc. continued a 3 week surge and eclipsed our price target of $108.74.  After discussion amongst the board, we have decided it is in our best interest to stay disciplined to group guidelines and sell the remainder of our position in CAT.  Since its inception to the portfolio in 2008, CAT has returned over 325% and paid a consistent dividend.  We see this as an excellent opportunity to reap our tremendous gains from Caterpillar and pursue other opportunities that present more upside at this time.

-Jeremy Pellizzari

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Fiserv acquires CashEdge

Fiserv (FISV) has acquired CashEdge Inc. for $465 million in cash. "CashEdge provides an attractive suite of solutions to further enable the delivery of a highly differentiated payments experience for financial institutions and their customers, as well as accelerate the coming P2P movement," said Jeffery Yabuki, President and CEO.

This moves fits with Fiserv’s history of making smaller strategic acquisitions. Management believes the transaction will be neutral to 2011 EPS, and positive in 2012. It will be interesting to see how this move impacts the rate of share repurchases. The board authorized an additional 7.5 million shares in May, and UASBIG’s model assumes that total will be spread evenly over the next eight quarters. At this time there is not enough evidence to update the target price, which stands at $72.49 or 12% above today’s close of 64.75.