Hewlett Packard: On the Rise

Since the acquisition of Hewlett Packard in the portfolio the company has had many newsworthy actions that support the purchase of the stock. It has has been on the rise and closed today at $44.17 (January 5th 2011).

Positives:
The main risks going into this new fiscal year was whether or not Hewlett Packard was going to maintain its strong sales ability in renewing and obtaining new contracts. Since the beginning of the fiscal year they have received contracts summing in the multi-billions of dollars. A note-able contract was with NASA beating out Lockhead Martin, the HP Enterprise Services won a $2.5 billion contract to manage, secure, and maintain its IT infrastructure across all of the agency’s research and flight centers. The program is called Agency Consolidated End-User Services, or ACES, and stretches out over 10 years. Currently Hewlett Packard ranks No. 12 on Washington Technology’s 2010 Top 100 list of the largest federal government contractors.

RBC Capital analyst Amit Daryanani writes in a report that came out January 3 that 2011 he assigns HPQ an Outperform rating and a $57 price target.

Hewlett-Packard on tuesday January 4th 2010 announced a netbook with some cutting-edge mobile broadband and graphics technologies that could make it the most powerful netbook yet. The lightweight Pavilion DM1 netbook comes with an 11.6-inch screen, and runs on Advanced Micro Devices' new Fusion processor, which bundles a graphics chip and CPU into a single piece of silicon. The DM1 runs for a maximum of 10.5 hours with solid-state drive storage, and 9.5 hours on hard drive storage. This Netbook will be have the capability to be on wireless LTE (long-term evolution) mobile broadband networks, which offer faster data transfers than current 3G networks.(Rumored with Verizon but could possible be with another network.)

Negatives:
Chief Marketing Officer Michael Mendenhall resigned and is going to be replaced by SAP V.P. Bill Wohl. There is no definite reason for mendhalls leaving as of yet but this will sure stir up some controversy.

Events:
HP has invited the press to a WebOS announcement which will not be at CES but on Feb. 9. "The wording of the invite also hints there may be more than one device presented."

-Jonathan Wiener

Dress Barn Corporate Reorganization

The Dress Barn, Inc. announced today that the company completed its expected holding company reorganization on January 1, 2011. Ascena Retail Group, a new Delaware corporation, has replaced Dress Barn as the publicly held corporation and will begin trading immediately under the ticker “ASNA.” The reorganization was approved at Dress Barn’s annual shareholders meeting on December 17, 2010.

This move should not affect Dress Barn’s position in the portfolio because as a result of the reorganization, shareholders of Dress Barn automatically become stockholders of Ascena on a one-for-one basis. We will be holding the same number of Ascena shares and have the same ownership percentage after the reorganization as held of Dress Barn prior to the reorganization.

According to the company's press release, “Incorporating the new holding company in Delaware will allow the company to take advantage of the flexibility, predictability and responsiveness that Delaware corporate law provides.” The three core brands: dressbarn, maurices, and Justice, have become wholly-owned subsidiaries of Ascena and will continue operations as is under the new structure. No changes have been made to directors or executive officers.

Given the successful acquisitions of maurices and Justice within the last five years, the reorganization confirms a strategic shift in direction for the company. Prior to the purchase of maurices in 2005, Dressbarn was centered around a single brand but has begun to develop a more portfolio-style brand approach. Management has proven their ability to integrate these acquired brands, and the transition to a portfolio driven holding company suggests further acquisitions are expected in the future.

-Ian

Recap of Healthcare Holdings

Endo Pharmaceuticals

As expected, the specialty pharmaceutical firm wrapped up its acquisition of Qualitest Pharmaceuticals, cementing Endo as the 6^th largest generics company in the United States. Reflecting the closing date, the acquisition should be fully accretive to earnings in 4Q 2011. To help cover a portion of the financing for the acquisition, Endo issued a $400 million privately placed note offering this past November. The notes were priced at 7% and will be due in 2020. With the closing of the deal finalized, management revised its earnings estimate for FY 2010, increasing full year revenue projections to $1.7 billion from a range of $1.63 billion to $1.68 billion. The Qualitest acquisition was a major catalyst in my valuation for Endo.

Just today, Endo received FDA approval for Fortesta, which is a topical gel for testosterone replacement therapy. Fortesta was a minor catalyst for my valuation of Endo, but with currently just 9% of the 14 million men suffering from low levels of the key hormone being treated, this drug has huge potential. What differentiates Fortesta from competitor drugs like AndroGel is Fortesta contains 2% testosterone and is applied to the thigh, which should further help prevent the transfer from one person to another. The product is expected to be launched in early 2011 and while Endo did not give revenue projections for the drug, Abbott Laboratories is expecting FY 2010 revenue of $633 million for AndroGel. Endo’s stock was up over 3 percent in after-hours trading earlier today.

Even more important is the hearing for the approval of the tamper-resistant form of Opana ER on January 7, 2011. I am confident that Endo will receive approval for the drug due to the positives for both physicians prescribing and patients who use tamper-resistant forms of painkillers. Approval of Opana TR would also help Endo fight off generic competition for Opana ER.

- David, Co-President, Healthcare Sector Head

Novartis AG

Novartis has recently finished its acquisition of Alcon by purchasing the remaining 23 percent of the company. Novartis offered 2.8 of its own shares per share of Alcon, which equates to $168 per share. The remainder of Alcon was valued at $12.9 billion, wrapping up a $28.1 billion deal earlier this year, and a $10.4 billion deal in 2008. The complete merger had been stalled for a year, until the offer became more lucrative due to the appreciating Swiss franc and a rise in the Novartis share price. Novartis purchased Alcon in order to strengthen its eye-care division, and believes the acquisition will bolster sales, and allow Novartis to expand into a market that was previously untapped by the Swiss drug maker. Joseph Jimenez, the CEO of Novartis, says the improved eye-care division would have had created $8.7 billion in new sales last year. In addition to an increase in sales, Jimenez believes the companies will complement each other well, and that they can create $300 million in cost savings through synergies.

In addition to merger news, Novartis has seen some new drug activity lately. Tasigna, a blood cancer drug, has been approved in the European Union for treating leukemia. Studies showed that Tasigna produced better results than Gleevac, a widely prescribed drug for patients with leukemia. Gleevac is also owned by Novartis, and the company hopes Tasigna will replace the former drug before patent expiration. Novartis drugs have also seen some setbacks though, with Zometa failing to help with breast cancer. Zometa was seen as a promising new way to treat the disease, but has failed to produce significant results in clinical studies. Previous studies showed great promise for the drug, as the osteoporosis medicine seemed to reduce cancer reoccurrence by 33 percent. The successes could not be replicated, however, and the drug did not reduce reoccurrences of breast cancer in the latest study.

In addition to bad news from clinical testing, the Swiss drug maker has recently paid-out $350,000 to settle a fraud case. The company settled a case with the state of Idaho, after allegations that the company was engaging in bribery. The state of Idaho alleges that Novartis was bribing doctors to prescribe a drug used to treat epilepsy. The company had been coercing the prescription of its drug through providing entertainment and travel gifts to medical professionals. The case with Idaho is settled, but the company may see further lawsuits from other states.

-Ryan Kennedy, Junior Analyst

Allscripts-Healthcare Solutions

Allscripts-Healthcare Solutions announced on 12/28 that two of their current offerings, sunrise Acute Care Version 5.5, are Sunrise Emergency Care Version 5.5 are 2011/2012 CCHIT compliant and were certified as Complete EHRs on December 21, 2010 by the Certification Commission for Health Information Technology (CCHIT). This is only a few weeks after 5 other offerings were CCHIT certified as well. "Certification of our Sunrise Acute Care, Emergency Department and Ambulatory Electronic Health Records is an important milestone for the company as it marks the completion of ARRA (American Recovery Reinvestment Act) certification for our full portfolio of ambulatory and acute EHRs, a commitment we made to our clients," said Glen Tullman, Chief Executive Officer of Allscripts. "The Federal incentives for EHR adoption represent an unparalleled opportunity for healthcare organizations to implement tools which can help improve healthcare quality and efficiency. We believe our ARRA-certified products, coupled with our experience delivering meaningful value for tens of thousands of physician practices and hospitals across the country, make Allscripts an ideal organization to partner with as we create a connected community of health."

-Devon Gould, Junior Analyst

Life Technologies

At the beginning of the month, Life Technologies launched its newest revolutionary technology in DNA sequencing, which has significant cost lowering implications for the now expensive process of sequencing DNA. Life’s Personal Genome Machine is a printer-sized device that is currently being marketed to research laboratories for about $50,000, which is about a tenth of the cost of similar machines. More importantly, the new device has streamlined the sequencing process so that it only takes a few hours, as opposed to several days of laboring with large machines that must be operated by specially trained technicians. Life’s COO, Mark Stevenson, aspires to sell the machine to hospitals to diagnose diseases.

Also during December, Life raised $800 million in a two part sale of bonds. The $400 million notes, which carry a coupon rate of 3.5%, will mature on Jan. 15, 2016, while the securities costing $400 million, which carry a coupon rate of 5%, will be due on Jan. 15, 2021. The company will use the proceeds from the offering, which is expected to close on Dec. 14, 2010, for repayment of existing indebtedness and for general corporate purposes.

Finally, the company announced that it was taken as a member of the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index for the third year in a row. The company also declared its debut on the NASDAQ Global Sustainability List and second year on the Maplecroft Climate Innovation Index, and its commitment to transparency and carbon footprint reduction through participation in the Carbon Disclosure Project, demonstrating the company’s continued global leadership in business, environmental and social issues.

- Jesus Rincon, Junior Analyst

NKE FY2011 Q2 Earnings

Nike, Inc. reported financial results for their fiscal 2011 second quarter ending November 30, 2010 today after the close. Diluted earnings per share were reported at $0.94, representing a 24% increase year-over-year and beating analyst expectations of $0.87. Revenue for the quarter was $4.84 billion, up 10% over last year and also surpassing Street estimates of $4.81 billion. Shares of NKE finished up 2.25% today at $92.30, but are down nearly 5% in after-market trading.

President and CEO Mark Parker attributes growth in nearly every brand, category, and geographic location to their "innovative product, compelling brands, and strong marketplace management." In the future, Parker believes that the company will have "far more opportunities than challenges."

Futures orders for branded products from December 2010 through April 2011 totaled $7.7 billion, which is 11% greater than orders reported for the same time frame last year. The Street, however, was expecting an 11.6% gain in futures orders, which may explain why the stock is down in extended trading hours. Inventories were up 8% from FY2010, ending the quarter at $2.3 billion. Net Income increased 22% to $457 million.

The company repurchased 3.5 million shares for approximately $280 million during the second quarter. This is part of the company's 4-year, $5 billion share repurchase program. To date, 17.4 million shares have been bought back for about $1.3 billion under this program.

-Ian

Visa Inc

Visa Inc’s shares dropped 12.67% today on news that the Federal Reserve proposed a 12 cent cap on the fees banks would be allowed to charge merchants for debit card transactions. This would be a drastic change considering the average 2009 fee was 44 cents. The cap is only proposed for debit card and has no affect on credit cards. This is not good for Visa because their business is growing much faster in the debit card segment versus the credit card segment. Also in the proposed regulation merchants would be allowed to choose which network processed their transactions, no matter what brand the card is. This means a visa card transaction can be processed by master card or another competitor. This will create more competition and could lead to a price war between companies, cutting deeper into profits. I will do more research into the affects this will have on Visa and make a recommendation to the group shortly.

-Joe Doran

WMT Posts 3Q; Raises Outlook

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) 3Q earnings posted on Tuesday, November 16th, showed a 9.3% increase in profits mainly due to successful international operations and cost controls. However, the company's biggest unit, U.S. same-store sales fell for a sixth straight quarter as the world's biggest retailer contended with still-struggling low-income customers and management changes. WMT posted Net sales for the third quarter were $101.2 billion, an increase of 2.6 percent. Wal-mart income from continuing operations attributable to the quarter was $3.4 billion, up from $3.2 billion in the third quarter last year. Wal-Mart did raise its current-year earnings forecast from $4.08 to $4.12 a share from $3.95 to $4.05 as it projected earnings of $1.29 to $1.33 a share for the fourth quarter. WMT believes they will continue to see driving growth through international operations along with a tax benefit, and predicted that same-store sales growth will turn positive during the period. Wal-Mart shares rose 0.8% premarket, to $54.40.
~Sarah

Polo Ralph Lauren Reports 2Q Earnings

Ralph Lauren today reported net income of $205 million, or $2.09 per diluted shared, from $178 million, or $1.75 per diluted share a year earlier. RL beat expectations of $1.71 with the $2.09. Revenue rose 11% to 1.5 billion compared to last year, this beat expectations of the estimated 1.48 billion. The increase in revenue is driven by higher global wholesale sales and growth in retail sales. Higher shipment volumes in the United States and Europe offset the lower wholesale revenue in Japan and the unfavorable effect of currency translation. Retail sales rose 17% to $659 million from $563 million the previous year. Rise in retail sales reflects the newly transitioned Asian operations. Operating expense reported at $1.1 million is up 9% from the prior year. A source of the growth is the costs associated with the new Asian operations. Looking ahead the company expects that as a result of higher than expected second quarter revenues the remainder of fiscal year 2011 will have an increase in revenue in the low double-digit percentage, this includes the foreign currency translation effect. Previously the company had expected mid to high single digit percentage rate. As a response to the higher then expected 2Q Earnings the stock rose 7.29% to $107.95
-Susan